US Recession Risk Dashboard

When the spread turns negative (yield curve inverts), short-term rates exceed long-term rates — a signal that bond markets expect economic weakness ahead. The 10Y–2Y inversion has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1970s, typically by 12 to 18 months. Below 0% (teal dashed line) means the curve is inverted — a caution signal. Both spreads turning negative simultaneously is a stronger warning.

A reading at or above 0.5 (red dotted line) signals a recession has likely begun — triggered when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points or more above its 12-month low.

Bars above 0 indicate above-trend economic growth; below 0, below-trend economic growth. A reading below −0.35 (teal dashed line) suggests the economy is losing enough momentum that recession risk is rising. A reading below −0.70 (red dotted line) has historically coincided with an official recession.

Index scaled to 100 = 1966 baseline. Above 70 (teal line) indicates healthy consumer sentiment. Below 55 (red line) is historically associated with recession anxiety and significant economic distress.

Year-over-year % change — how much income grew or shrank compared to the same month a year earlier. Above +1% (teal dashed line) = healthy; 0–1% = caution; below 0% (red dotted line) = alert.

3-month % change — how much retail spending grew or shrank over the past three months compared to the three months prior. Smooths monthly noise while still capturing momentum shifts. Above +1% (teal dashed line) = healthy; −1% to +1% = caution; below −1% (red dotted line) = alert.

Minimum payment share (blue) tracks financial stress; full payment share (orange) tracks financial strength. When the lines converge, the gap is narrowing. If only minimums are rising while full payments hold steady, stress is concentrated in lower-income households while higher-income households remain fine (K-shaped economy). If minimums are rising and full payments are also falling, stress is spreading across all households, which is more alarming. When the lines move apart, with full payments rising and minimums falling at the same time, financial health is improving broadly across all households, the most positive signal. When both lines move together, the gap stays roughly constant and the distribution of financial health is not meaningfully shifting, a neutral signal.

Tracks the share of outstanding balances that are past due. Above 2.5% (teal dashed line) suggests delinquency is rising above post-financial crisis norms, a caution signal. Above 3.5% (red dotted line) indicates stress not seen outside of recessions in the modern era, an alert signal. These thresholds apply to credit card (orange solid line) and consumer loan / auto (blue solid line) delinquency rates, which are scored. Mortgage delinquency (cyan dotted line) is shown for context only — not scored.

Weekly Claims (cyan) is the raw weekly count — noisy due to seasonal effects. The 4-Week Avg (blue) smooths that noise and is the primary signal to watch. Below 300K (teal dashed line) indicates a healthy labor market; above 400K (red dotted line) has historically signaled a deteriorating labor market and rising recession risk.

U-3 (blue) is the headline unemployment rate and the scored metric — counts only those actively looking for work. U-6 (orange) is the broader measure, adding discouraged workers who've stopped searching and part-time workers who want full-time work. A widening gap between the two signals rising underemployment stress even when the headline rate looks healthy. U-3 thresholds: above 4.5% (teal dashed line) is caution; above 5.5% (red dotted line) is alert.

Bars show the raw month-over-month change in total nonfarm employment. The cyan line is the 3-month average — this is the scored metric, smoothing out monthly noise. Above +100K (teal dashed line) indicates healthy job growth, enough to absorb new workers entering the labor force. Between 0 and +100K is a caution zone — the economy is still adding jobs but at a pace too slow to keep up with population growth. Below 0 (red dotted line) means jobs are being lost outright, an alert signal historically associated with recession.

Job openings (blue) vs. unemployed persons (orange), both in thousands. When openings exceed unemployed persons, workers have leverage; when they cross below, the balance shifts toward employers.

Year-over-year percent change in job openings — this is the scored metric. Above −10% (teal dashed line) is healthy: openings may be declining but remain within normal cyclical range. Between −10% and −25% (red dotted line) is caution: openings are falling significantly, suggesting hiring is pulling back. Below −25% is an alert: a sharp collapse in openings that has historically only appeared during or just before recessions.

Openings divided by unemployed persons. Above 1.0 (teal line) = more openings than job seekers — workers have leverage. Below 1.0 = employers have leverage. Below 0.7 (red line) signals meaningful labor market stress — this level has historically only appeared during genuine deterioration, not just a softening market. Peaked near 2.0 in 2022.

S&P 500 index level over the past 10 years. See the drawdown chart below for the scored metric.

Percent decline from the highest closing price in the prior 52 weeks — this is the scored metric. Below 10% (teal dashed line) is healthy: normal market volatility. Between 10% and 20% (red dotted line) is caution: a meaningful correction that has historically preceded recessions but also resolved without one. Above 20% is an alert: a bear market decline that, alongside consumer stress, is the core disconnect signal this dashboard tracks.

Below 0 (teal dashed line) means financial conditions are looser than average — credit is easy to obtain, borrowing costs are low, and banks are lending freely. Above 0 means conditions are tighter than average — credit is harder to get, borrowing costs are elevated, and lenders are more cautious. Above 0.5 (red dotted line) signals significant stress, where restricted credit and elevated borrowing costs are broad enough to slow economic activity.

High Yield (blue) and BBB-rated (orange) corporate bond spreads over Treasuries, in basis points. Rising spreads signal that credit markets are pricing in higher default risk. High Yield bonds are issued by companies with below-investment-grade credit ratings — also called junk bonds — and pay higher interest rates to compensate investors for higher default risk. BBB is the lowest investment-grade credit rating, one notch above junk. When BBB-rated bonds get downgraded to junk, many institutional funds are forced to sell them, which can amplify market stress beyond what High Yield alone captures. Teal dashed lines = caution thresholds (High Yield > 400 bps; BBB > 175 bps). Red dotted lines = alert thresholds (High Yield > 600 bps; BBB > 250 bps).

Federal Funds Rate (orange) and 30-Year Mortgage Rate (blue). The cyan line shows the spread between the two — how much higher the mortgage rate is than the Fed Funds Rate. FEDFUNDS is shown for context only and is not scored; the spread is what is scored. Above 3% (teal dashed line) signals unusual stress — mortgage rates are elevated well beyond what the Fed policy rate alone explains. Above 4% (red dotted line) signals severe market dysfunction, where mortgage markets are pricing in significant additional risk.